Space Weather Prediction with Cosmic Rays

Clicking any plot below will produce an enlargement.
Scroll down for information about this site, and links to additional online plots.
Spaceship Earth Loss Cone Graph
Spaceship Earth GLE Monitor (Minute Resolution)

Introduction

This Website is a gateway for space weather displays based upon cosmic ray data returned by the Spaceship Earth network of neutron monitors. In the future it will also include space weather displays based upon data from the worldwide network of muon detectors.

The top of the site contains reduced versions of the plots that we consider most relevant for space weather prediction. Click any plot to obtain an enlarged version. As our space weather products are improved and optimized, these plots will change from time to time.

Below is a brief description of the multi-national team providing data for this site. Following that is a listing of available realtime space weather displays based upon cosmic ray data, including a link to the display, a brief discussion of its use for space weather forecasting or specification, and citations to in-depth information in the literature.

Disclaimer and Recommendation

Disclaimer. This is a prototype, experimental site. Use of material on this site for any purpose is at your own risk. We do not guarantee that the realtime displays will be available or up-to-date at all times. Realtime data has not been subjected to rigorous quality control; it may contain "glitches" that produce false alarms or fail to detect true space weather disturbances. Even when the data are good, there may be physical factors that produce false alarms or fail to detect true space weather disturbances. Refer to the literature for more information about these physical factors.

Recommendation. Space weather forecasting is a challenging, complex endeavor. Prospects for success are enhanced if all relevant information is considered. We recommend that data on this site be interpreted in the context of realtime space weather data from a broad range of other providers.


Participating Institutions

Spaceship Earth

Spaceship Earth is an 11-station network of neutron monitors strategically located to provide precise, real-time, 3-dimensional measurements of the cosmic ray angular distribution. Participating institutions include the University of Delaware, IZMIRAN, Polar Geophysical Institute (Apatity), Australian Antarctic Division, and the University of Tasmania.

The Muon Team

In the future this site will include space weather products from a growing muon detector network. Participating institutions include the University of Delaware, Shinshu University (Japan), Nagoya University (Japan), Southern Space Observatory of INPE (Brazil), University of Santa Maria (Brazil), Australian Antarctic Division, and the University of Tasmania.


Links to Space Weather Displays (with Brief Explanations)

Spaceship Earth Loss Cone Graph

Important Note: This plot is an experimental prototype. The display format will change (possibly frequently) as a result of ongoing research to optimize space weather prediction with cosmic rays. Refer here for a brief explanation of the current display format.

DISPLAY FORMAT
Top Panel: Magnetic field magnitude and latitude measured aboard ACE.
Second Panel: Estimated hourly Kp index.
Third Panel (Main Part of Display): Each circle represents an hourly average of the cosmic ray intensity measured by a single Spaceship Earth station relative to the average intensity observed by that station during the prior 24 hours. Red circles indicate deficit intensity, blue circles indicate excess intensity, and the size of the circle scales with the magnitude of the deficit or excess; see left side of plot for scale. Horizontal axis is time (3 days total displayed), and vertical axis is station asymptotic longitude in GSE coordinates. Green dots show magnetic field longitude (from ACE) in GSE coordinates.

Spaceship Earth GLE Monitor (Minute Resolution)

Important Note: This is a plot of nearly raw realtime data, recommended for use only by those familiar with interpretation of neutron monitor data. A display format more useful for nonspecialists is under development.

DISPLAY FORMAT
Pressure corrected 1-minute data from several Spaceship Earth stations and a few other high-latitude stations are displayed. Generally these displays will be of interest only during cosmic ray ground level enhancements (GLE) or major Forbush decreases. Most of the time the displayed variations are simply statistical noise.


This space weather site is operated with support of the U.S. National Space Weather Program under NSF grant ATM-0207196.

Spaceship Earth is supported by the U.S. National Science Foundation under grant ATM-0000315, with participation by IZMIRAN, Polar Geophysical Institute (Apatity), Australian Antarctic Division, and University of Tasmania.

The muon detector network is a joint project of the University of Delaware (NSF support from grant ATM-0207196), Shinshu University, Nagoya University, Southern Space Observatory of INPE, University of Santa Maria, Australian Antarctic Division, and University of Tasmania.